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Usually, the NFL's Coach of the Year award follows a simple script. It commonly serves as a kind of mea culpa. Sorry we underestimated your franchise in our preseason forecasts.

Theoretically, it's a clear-cut line: the coach who oversaw the most dramatic turnaround receives the prize. However, it fuels an yearly discussion about preseason outlooks and whether we're truly honoring excellent coaching or simply the greatest upset.

Yet this year's race is distinctly different. The group of contenders is remarkably talented. It has been the campaign of resurgences. The NFL has been unpredictable, with reigning division winners falling away and recent also-rans rising together. Under an normal year, Sean Payton guiding the his team to the top of the AFC would make him the stone-cold favorite. But in such a wild and thrilling year, he's competing with five other outstanding coaches.

This is how the projected vote could shake out.

5) The Chicago Bears Coach, Chicago Bears, 11-5

Coach of the Year voters are fascinated by QBs. History shows this. A certain coach in 2017. Another in 2020. Brian Daboll in 2022. Should you transform a quarterback, you're well on your way home.

The Bears' head coach hasn't just fixed his young quarterback; he's unlocked him. Within an ideal system, Williams has been afforded the chance to demonstrate his special ability. From Week 9, the Bears rank fourth in offensive EPA per play. This isn't a lucky run – it's sustained dominance. Under his guidance, Williams has become more decisive, far less reckless, and has eagerly surrendered to the scheme instead of going rogue. It is an attack designed entirely in the coach's vision: a bully-ball ground attack, a consistent helping of play-action and a creative passing attack that creates wide receiver targets all over the field. Williams has taken advantage. And when openings haven't been available, he's been able to conjure big plays from nothing.

Johnson came to the Bears with a specific offensive blueprint. Almost every bet – overhauling the trenches, highlighting the pass-catchers, transforming Williams into a timing-based passer – has succeeded. That's rare for a first-year head coach. And it's rarer still for a coach who walked into the building with the kind of hype Johnson did. For two straight cycles, he was the most sought-after candidate on the coaching carousel. However when it comes to selecting a leader, there are zero guarantees. Remarkably, Johnson has met expectations – and even exceeded them. He's demonstrated not just to be a offensive dork but the type of leader that can inject fresh energy into an organization.

During a normal year, he would be the clear-cut choice. But this isn't a normal campaign!

Where Johnson's case comes a bit into trouble is on defense. The Bears currently sit in the bottom third in defensive success rate. They are living on turnovers, and turnovers are famously unreliable. Defensive minds can focus on ball disruption, but nobody can ensure it. Johnson is on the list because the offensive production is legitimate. He's ranked lower because variance is doing an outsized share of the defensive work. If not for a few bounces of the ball, the Bears would be several wins worse off. It's been an remarkable turnaround, and the core is in place for long-term winning. However he comes up just short in this ranking.

4) The Jacksonville Jaguars Coach, His Team, Their Record

The Jaguars' coach is in a similar situation to Johnson. He's another rookie head coach who has orchestrated a dramatic resurgence. Over the stretch run of the season, he has his franchise quarterback playing the finest all-around ball of his professional life. And he's also spearheaded the transformation of a defensive unit that now sits at number five in the NFL in Expected Points Added per play.

What's more notably, he has excelled at the off-field aspects, which was not a guarantee after his initial press conference appearances and some of his offseason moves.

The coach took over the Jaguars with an uncommonly inexperienced staff. In contrast to Johnson, who surrounded their staff with the perfect coaching blend of new ideas and veteran savvy, he bet on first-timers. Starting with the leader himself to coordinators to position coaches, the Jaguars are stocked with rookies. That type of setup is exciting on paper, but frequently collapses in reality – with other teams are a cautionary tale – because everybody is learning a new job in real-time. Yet he has managed to bring the entire group and all elements into sync.

Following an early strong start, there was a risk that the season would veer off the rails. A midseason collapse caused the Jags stumbling again. That's typically when leaders panic and change too much. He didn't. Rather, he streamlined things. The offense stopped pursuing explosive plays and started hunting sustainable ones. The coach refocused the offense around his playmakers and the running game, and encouraged his QB to use his mobility more.

The results are evident. The Jags have won seven games consecutively and will be the conference's No 3 playoff seed. He receives the tiniest knock in the standings because he took over a talented roster, but he has proven he can maximize that talent.

3) The Seattle Seahawks Coach, His Team, Their Record

Each Coach of the Year argument has a defining moment. For Mike Macdonald, it was his quarterback choice.

Parting ways from a veteran, signing a new signal-caller and partnering him with an innovative offensive coordinator could have ended the season in October. Rather, it shaped it. Through the mid point of the year, the new QB was an MVP contender. He has fallen away since that hot streak, slipping to a lower rank in EPA per pass attempt over the latter part of the season, putting him only a single spot ahead of peers.

Still