Ten years after the UK embarked on a hurried public vote that divided the country and triggered disorder, a warning emerges from beyond the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
Policymakers and citizens drifted into Brexit and the identical may happen with a referendum on a united Ireland, initiating convulsions for which no one is ready.
That represents the warning from two prominent writers from either side of the Irish border who have collaborated to analyse the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland departing the UK to create a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Structures Not Ready
The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have determined that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are extremely unready for a possibly tense and monumental referendum.
"The lesson of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that developments can arise suddenly and can build support rapidly," O’Toole remarked. "In my opinion that the institutional structure of our islands remains very unstable."
Released Volume Intends to Stir Debate
The pair have examined the political, economic and societal reasons for any governmental shift in a publication, For and Against a United Ireland, released by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to stir debate on the matter with a tour of lectures that will take them to Westminster early next month.
"What troubles all parties, or ought to concern all involved, is the Brexit vote of 2016," said O’Toole.
"We should prevent a national vote on a yes-no, unclear proposal whose implications have remained undefined because then you end up with an extraordinarily divided society where those defeated are not reconciled to defeat and the people who have won lack clarity precisely what it is that they have gained."
Legal Framework
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state should call a public vote on Irish unity if it appears likely that a majority would support.
Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups say such a time is approaching, and a group called Ireland’s Future has rallied support, but both governments and pro-UK factions downplay the likelihood, making it uncertain when or if there could be a referendum.
Insufficient Serious Debate
Partisan language supporting and opposing unity has masked the shortage of serious debate, stated the journalist.
"People tend to be supportive or opposed the idea but the concrete planning which might go beyond that to make it possible is mostly absent. Much has occurred in scholarly circles but hardly any elected officials or activists seek to involve themselves with the basics. As an example, what sort of state would you want? Unitary? Decentralised?"
Publication's Method
In the book, none of the commentators supports unity or the status quo. Both writes two essays that aim for objectivity in detailing the argument for a united Ireland and the rationale opposing it, assembling financial and societal figures, historical precedents and structural examples.
Debates range over flags and symbols, duties, healthcare systems, pensions, national debt responsibilities and the danger of unionist unrest. The aim is to educate and provoke conversation.
"There is significant curiosity in the topic but there has not yet occurred a dialogue," commented the writer. "Discussion indicates an acknowledgement of the idea that there could be reasonable perspectives on either side."
Parallel Votes
A public vote in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the Republic of Ireland, where voters claim they prefer unification but refuse greater financial contributions or adopting a new flag to reflect pro-UK communities' UK heritage.
"The Irish government must determine what the proposal from Irish nationalism is beyond just stating: 'We seek a unified Ireland and we value you'," remarked O’Toole.
Likelihood of Referendum
The journalist believes a referendum in his lifetime is probable and that it could happen unexpectedly. "It is possible just a reckless or a ill-advised or a feckless government minister who declares: 'Let's just do this and resolve it.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and unionists have credible, legitimate arguments, he commented. "One side will win on this issue and the other side will ultimately be defeated but each side has possesses valuable insights to acquire from the alternative viewpoints."
Appeal for More Extensive Dialogue
Westminster needed to join the discussion, said the analyst. "This concerns the United Kingdom. It is a British issue just as much as it is an Irish issue."
